Index funds for prediction markets

place bets on your ideas,

type a view like “LeBron never retires.” we find the related contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi, combine them into one basket you can buy, and adjust it based on the news for you

build a basket
How it works

one idea can span many markets.

a single prediction market is a bet on one question. and a basket spreads your view across many questions that depends on it, so one surprise doesn’t wipe you out.

1 · your view
“LeBron never retires.”
2 · markets we scan
  • KalshiLeBron plays in the 2027–28 season58¢
  • PolyLeBron signs a new contract by July44¢
  • KalshiLeBron announces retirement in 202731¢
3 · your basket
  • Plays in 2027–28 yes40%
  • New contract by July yes35%
  • Retires in 2027 no25%
then, every time news breaks
  1. headline“LeBron: ‘I still love the grind’”
  2. our estimate“Plays in 2027–28” should be ~6 pts higher
  3. basketweight moves 40% → 46%
FAQ

Questions,
answered.

How baskets are built, what moves them, and what can go wrong.

See all questions

got a take?

build a basket