Benchmarks
how baskets did in our backtest.
We picked 29 ideas, like Fed rate cuts and the midterms, and bet on each one in two ways. One was a basket of related Kalshi markets. The other was a single bet on the most popular market for that idea. We bought both on Sep 19, 2026 and held them for 45 days.
- ideas where the basket did better
- 19 of 29
- how much results varied from idea to idea
- 17% vs 31%
- ideas that lost more than 20%
- 5 vs 10
- typical biggest dip along the way
- 12% vs 21%
Basket Single bet
all 29 ideas, side by side.
Each dot is one idea’s return after fees. The basket results sit fairly close together. The single bets are more spread out, from −72% to +96%, so how you did depended a lot on which market you picked. Hover over a dot to see both results for that idea.
results for each idea.
Sorted by how much better the basket did.
| Idea | Markets | Basket | Single bet | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fed will cut rates aggressively as the labor market weakens | 9 | −1.8% | −40.3% | |
| Housing prices fall as mortgage rates stay high | 7 | +18.4% | −18.6% | |
| Republicans keep control of both chambers of Congress | 6 | −34.4% | −71.0% | |
| Gold keeps hitting record highs as investors flee the dollar | 7 | −4.9% | −40.9% | |
| Rate cuts and a soft landing | 7 | −36.5% | −72.3% | |
| The war in Ukraine reaches a ceasefire | 7 | −21.9% | −57.4% | |
| Fed Double Cut Path | 10 | −10.4% | −40.3% | |
| The crypto market crashes and Bitcoin falls below $80k | 5 | −15.6% | −44.5% | |
| SpaceX Starship reaches orbit and starts regular flights | 8 | −9.2% | −34.3% | |
| President JD Vance | 10 | −3.3% | −28.3% | |
| Taylor Swift dominates the charts and award shows | 10 | −1.8% | −25.2% | |
| A recession hits the US in 2027 | 9 | −10.8% | −18.6% | |
| Google Bull Run | 10 | +8.9% | +2.3% | |
| Nvidia remains the most valuable company in the world | 5 | +5.4% | +1.3% | |
| The S&P 500 finishes the year at a record high | 7 | +1.1% | −2.8% | |
| Democrats take back the House in the 2026 midterms | 9 | +4.9% | +3.7% | |
| Sixers Collapse Celtics Rise | 7 | −4.7% | −5.6% | |
| Elon Musk steps back from running his companies | 9 | −4.7% | −5.5% | |
| A big-budget movie flops at the box office this year | 5 | −2.5% | −2.8% | |
| Tesla struggles as EV demand slows | 9 | −6.7% | −5.5% | |
| Inflation will stay stubbornly above 3% into next year | 10 | −1.3% | +0.6% | |
| LeBron's Final Season | 7 | −4.2% | −1.7% | |
| The US economy avoids a recession and keeps growing steadily | 9 | −3.5% | +0.5% | |
| Tariffs on China escalate further | 5 | −12.6% | −6.4% | |
| OpenAI keeps its lead in AI and releases GPT-6 | 8 | −18.5% | −9.4% | |
| Oil prices will spike because of Middle East conflict | 4 | −15.4% | +3.7% | |
| This will be one of the hottest years on record | 5 | −21.0% | +5.1% | |
| Bitcoin breaks above $150k as crypto adoption accelerates | 7 | −30.7% | +4.2% | |
| Trump's approval rating keeps falling | 3 | +50.8% | +96.3% |
how we tested.
- 29 ideas in total. 6 are baskets people saved in the app, and 23 were built by our model from a one-line description.
- We bought both versions on Sep 19, 2026 at market prices, including Kalshi’s fee and the bid–ask spread.
- We held them until Nov 3, 2026 without rebalancing.
- Basket weights only used prices from before the buy date.
- The single bet put everything into the basket’s most traded market.
things to keep in mind.
- Both lost a little money over this period. The median basket was −4.7% and the median single bet was −5.6%. A basket spreads out your risk, but it won’t make a wrong idea pay off.
- We picked markets from the ones open today, so we knew a bit more than someone buying in September would have.
- 29 ideas over 45 days is a small test. Markets that closed keep their last price until they settle.