Basket turns a theme or thesis into a diversified portfolio of prediction-market contracts. You describe an idea in plain words; we find the contracts that move with it and size them into one basket you can buy, track and rebalance.
A yes-or-no question about a future event that trades between 0¢ and $1. It pays $1 if it resolves your way and nothing if it doesn’t, so its price roughly reflects how likely the market thinks the outcome is.
Kalshi today. We track its open markets and leave out the ones with very little trading, since they’re hard to get in and out of at a fair price.
A model breaks your thesis into sub-themes and search terms, scans open markets for matches, then picks the most relevant ones and whether to hold YES or NO. Weights give more relevant, more liquid contracts a larger share of the risk. Near-duplicates are dropped, and no position goes above 25%.
Not position by position yet. Nothing is saved or bought until you choose to, so you can review the picks, weights and reasoning first. If they aren’t right, send a refined thesis to get a new set.
There’s no fixed minimum, but contracts trade whole, so your amount has to buy at least one. Smaller amounts also land further from the target weights because each position rounds down to whole contracts.
Drift. As prices move, each holding’s weight moves away from its target. Once one is more than 5% off, we prompt you to review a rebalance. You can also set a basket to rebalance by itself at 3%, 5% or 10% drift, checked on each price sync.
Only if you want to. By default nothing trades until you place it, and you see the orders and fees first. If you turn on automatic rebalancing for a basket, it trades at the drift you chose without asking. You can turn it off at any time.
Contracts can lose their full value, and spreading a view across a basket lowers the damage from one surprise without removing it. Trading is on a paper account for now, so no real money is at stake and any gains or losses are simulated.
Nothing to use while trading is on paper. Your account opens with $10,000 of simulated cash, and each simulated fill pays Kalshi’s trading fee so that returns reflect real costs. Every order shows its fees before you place it.
Paper trading only needs an account. Real-money trading isn’t available yet, and access to contracts on their own venues varies by jurisdiction.
No. Basket is a tool for expressing your own views. Picks, weights and reasoning are generated by a model, can be wrong, and aren’t a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
Still curious.
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